Applying

Signal Strategy: Orthopaedic Surgery

207 Orthopaedic Surgery programs, ranked by how much a signal moves your interview odds. Set your stats to re-rank.
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Applicant type
Program signals used0of 30Your Orthopaedic Surgery limit
Divisions preferenced0of 3Shared across your whole application
Expected invites0.0Signal or save programs to see this
Programs in plan0Tap the heart on a program to save it

What a signal adds at a typical Orthopaedic Surgery program

P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data

No ties
5%→25%
+20 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Personal tie only
13%→37%
+23 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
79%→89%
+10 pp with signal
You rotated there
Thin sample (n=202)
Tie + away
89%→93%
+4 pp with signal
Already very likely
Thin sample (n=92)
How this is measured

raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=27,813 classifiable Orthopaedic Surgery applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

Showing 50 of 214

Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).

Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.

ERAS submissions open

Apps transmit to programs on this date.

Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.

For the full picture

Open Match Plan

Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.

Signal budget

Your Orthopaedic Surgery limit this cycle

Program signals0 of 30
Division preferences0 of 3

Division preferences

In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.

3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.