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Signal strategy

Orthopaedic Surgery

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 30 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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before May
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now
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by Sept
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Sept 2
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Oct-Dec
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Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Orthopaedic Surgery program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=27,813 classifiable Orthopaedic Surgery applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
5%→25%
+20 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
13%→37%
+23 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
79%→89%
+10 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=202)
Geo + away
89%→93%
+4 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=92)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 202
Albany Med Health SystemNY 102 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ToledoOH 132 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal61%
5.6%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 71/38 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 105 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal60%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 62/32 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 147 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stanford Health Care-Sponsored Stanford UniversityCA 136 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (Irvine)CA 118 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterTX 201 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal27%→with signal58%
5.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 127/50 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health System (Wilkes Barre)PA 91 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman Long Island School of MedicineNY 112 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 160 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Nebraska Medical Center College of MedicineNE 154 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal55%
6.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 88/37 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
St Luke's University HospitalPA 122 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Womack Army Medical CenterNC 36 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal39%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 106 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal54%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 46/43 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Robert Packer HospitalPA 47 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern UniversityIL 212 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal32%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Westchester Medical CenterNY 82 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal53%
9.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 51/24 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 112 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health System (Danville)PA 157 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Summa Health System/NEOMEDOH 121 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal52%
6.1%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 66/34 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
George Washington UniversityDC 223 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal34%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 116 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 136 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 140 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal51%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SSM Health/Saint Louis University School of MedicineMO 89 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal51%
7.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 51/15 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNY 171 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal51%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/New Jersey Medical SchoolNJ 139 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 165 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 262
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal50%
8.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 113/31 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McLaren Health Care/Flint/MSUMI 106 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal49%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 187 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal49%
5.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 94/64 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 208 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal49%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of Medicine/NYU Langone Orthopedic HospitalNY 166 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal49%
9.9%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 101/45 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 186 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal48%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ochsner Clinic FoundationLA 103 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
National Capital ConsortiumMD 13 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 139 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal47%
8.4%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 83/38 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Mount Carmel Health SystemOH 90 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 131 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 160 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Maimonides Medical CenterNY 144 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/Monmouth Medical CenterNJ 83 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Dartmouth-Hitchcock/Mary Hitchcock Memorial HospitalNH 157 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal46%
5.9%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 85/49 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityNY 168 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →