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Signal strategy

Orthopaedic Surgery

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 30 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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before May
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Pick signals
now
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by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Orthopaedic Surgery program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=43,859 classifiable Orthopaedic Surgery applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
5%→27%
+22 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
14%→39%
+25 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
82%→89%
+7 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=262)
Geo + away
90%→93%
+3 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=119)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 202
University of ToledoOH 206 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal65%
5.6%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 71/38 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Westchester Medical CenterNY 138 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal59%
9.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 51/24 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Robert Packer HospitalPA 73 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 184 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal56%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 62/32 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
St Luke's University HospitalPA 177 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health System (Danville)PA 228 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 202 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman Long Island School of MedicineNY 113 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health System (Wilkes Barre)PA 136 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical Education/HamotPA 134 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Summa Health System/NEOMEDOH 187 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal53%
6.1%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 66/34 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 248 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Nebraska Medical Center College of MedicineNE 236 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal52%
6.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 88/37 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of Wisconsin Affiliated HospitalsWI 275 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal3%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Mount Carmel Health SystemOH 139 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas (Wichita)KS 176 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McLaren Health Care/Flint/MSUMI 142 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/Monmouth Medical CenterNJ 133 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (Irvine)CA 191 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal3%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 239 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal49%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wright State UniversityOH 157 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal49%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 184 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal49%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 46/43 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Womack Army Medical CenterNC 49 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal49%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 187 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal48%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 263 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal3%→with signal48%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
USA HealthAL 136 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 328 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 216 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal47%
8.4%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 83/38 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
HCA Medical City Healthcare GME (Denton)TX 11 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 192 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal3%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Houston Methodist Hospital (Medical Center)TX 32 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/New Jersey Medical SchoolNJ 232 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal1%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor University Medical CenterTX 286 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
National Capital ConsortiumMD 21 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Naval Medical Center (Portsmouth)VA 15 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Marshall University School of MedicineWV 189 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ochsner Clinic FoundationLA 173 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 249 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 258 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 282 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal44%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
AdventHealth FloridaFL 242 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal44%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 266 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 262
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal44%
8.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 113/31 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →