Applying

Signal Strategy: Ophthalmology

124 Ophthalmology programs, ranked by how much a signal moves your interview odds. Set your stats to re-rank.
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Applicant type
Program signals used0of 15Your Ophthalmology limit
Expected invites0.0Signal or save programs to see this
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What a signal adds at a typical Ophthalmology program

P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data

No ties
9%→44%
+35 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Personal tie only
36%→61%
+25 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Thin sample (n=401)
Away rotation only
74%→81%
+7 pp with signal
You rotated there
Thin sample (n=146)
Tie + away
83%→88%
+5 pp with signal
Already very likely
Thin sample (n=114)
How this is measured

raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=21,156 classifiable Ophthalmology applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

Showing 50 of 127

Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).

Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.

Applications released to programs

Registration opens Jul 1, apps go to programs Sep 1. Match Day Jan 25.

Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027 · SF Match
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Aug
Submit SF Match
Aug 14
Track invites
Sept-Dec
Build rank list
Jan 6
Match Day
Jan 13
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.

For the full picture

Open Match Plan

Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.

Signal budget

Your Ophthalmology limit this cycle

Program signals0 of 15

Ophthalmology has 15 signals for 2026-27, up from 10 (and 7 the cycle before). The lift shown here was measured in the scarcer 7-10 signal years, so expect the per-signal effect to compress this cycle.