⚠Not signed in. Inputs are session-only.
Signal strategy

Ophthalmology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 15 program signals used
Applications released to programs
 
Registration opens Jul 1, apps go to programs Sep 1. Match Day Jan 25.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027 · SF Match
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Aug
Submit SF Match
Aug 14
Track invites
Sept-Dec
Build rank list
Jan 6
Match Day
Jan 13
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Ophthalmology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=21,156 classifiable Ophthalmology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
9%→44%
+35 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
36%→61%
+25 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=401)
Away rotation only
74%→81%
+7 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=146)
Geo + away
83%→88%
+5 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=114)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 124
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 213 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 161 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tulane UniversityLA 199 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Penn State Milton S Hershey Medical CenterPA 184 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MinnesotaMN 195 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 150 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 180 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 201 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health SystemPA 128 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 216 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Broward HealthFL 85 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/New Jersey Medical SchoolNJ 204 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 212 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 86 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MarylandMD 207 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 198 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Sutter Health/California Pacific Medical CenterCA 127 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 208 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 171 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 186 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 184 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
MedStar Health Georgetown UniversityDC 54 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 180 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 187 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ChicagoIL 213 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rhode Island Hospital/Brown University HealthRI 45 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tufts Medical CenterMA 218 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 172 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 171 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern UniversityIL 193 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of Medicine/Cullen Eye InstituteTX 228 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Duke University HospitalNC 225 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 143 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 204 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (San Francisco)CA 189 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Naval Medical Center (San Diego)CA 30 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
ECU Health Medical CenterNC 36 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Old Dominion UniversityVA 20 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Boston University Medical CenterMA 218 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical University of South CarolinaSC 208 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Missouri-ColumbiaMO 163 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →