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Signal strategy

Ophthalmology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 7 program signals used
SF Match opens (CAS)
 
Most ophtho programs accept apps Aug-Sept. Match Day mid-Jan.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027 · SF Match
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Aug
Submit SF Match
Aug 14
Track invites
Sept-Dec
Build rank list
Jan 6
Match Day
Jan 13
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Ophthalmology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=32,461 classifiable Ophthalmology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
10%→49%
+38 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
41%→65%
+25 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=447)
Away rotation only
78%→85%
+7 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=171)
Geo + away
85%→88%
+3 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=188)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 124
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 322 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tulane UniversityLA 304 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MinnesotaMN 301 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 246 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Penn State Milton S Hershey Medical CenterPA 289 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 339 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 322 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Geisinger Health SystemPA 199 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 227 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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University of California Davis HealthCA 266 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 302 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Temple University HospitalPA 306 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Tufts Medical CenterMA 339 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Broward HealthFL 131 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Rutgers Health/New Jersey Medical SchoolNJ 315 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 313 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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Medical College of GeorgiaGA 270 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 91 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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University of MarylandMD 317 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 322 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 285 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 282 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 50 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 292 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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MedStar Health Georgetown UniversityDC 57 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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University of South Florida MorsaniFL 238 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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New York Presbyterian Hospital (Columbia Campus)NY 278 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 214 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 237 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
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University of California (Irvine)CA 261 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of North Carolina HospitalsNC 342 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 267 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ChicagoIL 340 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-TucsonAZ 115 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rush University Medical CenterIL 319 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Naval Medical Center (San Diego)CA 43 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
ECU Health Medical CenterNC 35 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Old Dominion UniversityVA 22 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of Medicine/Cullen Eye InstituteTX 338 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →