Residency Match Statistics 2026: What the Data Shows Across 22 Specialties

Every match cycle, med students dig through the same NRMP Charting Outcomes PDFs trying to answer one question: where do I actually stand?

I pulled the numbers across all 22 specialties in Rezumab's calculator so you don't have to. Here's what the data says about match rates, Step scores, research, and how it all breaks down by applicant type.

The Competitiveness Spectrum

Not all specialties are created equal. US MD match rates range from 70.5% (Dermatology) to 99.7% (Pediatrics). That 30-point spread determines how much of your application needs to be optimized.

Ultra Competitive (Match Rate <75%)

These are the specialties where roughly 1 in 4 US MD applicants doesn't match. Step scores cluster around 255-257, and matched applicants have 24-37 publications on average. AOA membership is present in 28-41% of matched applicants. These numbers make the message clear: if you're aiming here, every part of your application matters.

Competitive (Match Rate 75-90%)

The middle tier. Most US MD applicants match, but there's still a meaningful failure rate. Step scores range from 246 (Psychiatry) to 256 (ENT, Radiology). The research gap between matched and unmatched is smaller here — strong clinical performance and letters can compensate.

Accessible (Match Rate >90%)

For US MDs, these specialties are near-guarantees. But the IMG column tells a different story — even "accessible" specialties have 40-60% non-US IMG match rates. If you're an IMG, there's no truly safe specialty.

Step 2 CK: How Much Does It Actually Matter?

The gap between matched and unmatched Step 2 CK averages varies by specialty, but it exists everywhere:

Interesting pattern: in ultra-competitive specialties, the Step gap is actually smaller (7 points for Derm). That's because everyone has a high score — the differentiator shifts to research, connections, and school prestige. In less competitive specialties, the gap widens because Step score acts as more of a filter.

The question isn't "what score do I need" — it's "how much does my score move the needle for my specific specialty?" That's what the match probability calculator is built for. Adjust your score up or down and watch the probability shift in real time.

The IMG Reality

The gap between US MD and IMG match rates is the most important number nobody talks about openly:

Even in Family Medicine and Pediatrics — the most "accessible" specialties — non-US IMGs match at 60-78%. In surgical subspecialties, it drops to 12-30%. These aren't numbers to be demoralized by. They're numbers to plan around.

If you're an IMG, the calculator factors in your applicant type specifically — you'll see probabilities calibrated to IMG data, not the US MD average. We also built an IMG-Friendly Programs explorer that ranks programs by their actual IMG interview rates.

Research: The Most Misunderstood Metric

Publication counts get the most attention, but the data tells a nuanced story. Compare matched averages across the spectrum:

The range is massive — Derm expects 6x the publications of Family Medicine. But here's the thing: in most specialties outside the ultra-competitive tier, the gap between matched and unmatched is only 2-4 publications. Research matters, but it's not the tiebreaker most people think it is.

Where research is a tiebreaker: Neurological Surgery (37.4 matched vs 31.8 unmatched) and Dermatology (27.7 vs 19.0). In these fields, you're competing against people who have been in labs since M1.

DO Applicants: Specialty by Specialty

DO match rates have improved significantly but still vary by specialty:

In primary care and EM, the MD-DO gap is nearly closed. In competitive surgical and procedural specialties, there's still a 15-25 point gap. The trend is positive, but the data says DO applicants should plan their application strategy differently for competitive specialties.

So What Should You Actually Do With This Data?

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