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Signal strategy

Urology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 30 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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Pick specialty
before May
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Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Urology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=12,061 classifiable Urology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
9%→45%
+36 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
23%→62%
+39 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=337)
Away rotation only
66%→95%
+29 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=35)
Geo + away
93%→94%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=14)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 150
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 72 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal40%→with signal90%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Westchester Medical CenterNY 58 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Creighton University School of Medicine (Omaha)NE 58 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal48%→with signal79%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 67 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal79%
10.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 30/26 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Tennessee Medical Center at KnoxvilleTN 95 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal36%→with signal78%
6.1%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 49/29 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 80 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal76%
6.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 44/26 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Penn State Milton S Hershey Medical CenterPA 91 in your cohortSignal usually requiredSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal74%
8.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 36/39 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ConnecticutCT 69 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 55 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 62 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal29%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Mason Franciscan HealthWA 52 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
St Joseph's Medical CenterCA 32 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 59 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Iowa Health Care Medical CenterIA 93 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman Long Island School of MedicineNY 52 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 66 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Main Line Health System/Bryn Mawr HospitalPA 60 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal29%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 53 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 68 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health SystemPA 70 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kaiser Permanente Southern California (Los Angeles)CA 68 in your cohortSignal usually requiredSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal68%
6.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 32/22 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 71 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 55 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ochsner Clinic FoundationLA 71 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal67%
5.7%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 35/27 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ToledoOH 59 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityNY 79 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Old Dominion UniversityVA 14 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 89 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 46 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal31%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 72 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/Robert Wood Johnson Medical SchoolNJ 91 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 107 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Alabama Hospital (Birmingham)AL 97 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic Foundation/Akron GeneralOH 63 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Doctors Hospital at Renaissance, Ltd.TX 23 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 89 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
USA HealthAL 36 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Cincinnati Medical Center/College of MedicineOH 83 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal60%
5.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 38/36 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
MaineHealthME 39 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →