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Signal strategy

Thoracic Surgery - Integrated

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 4 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Thoracic Surgery - Integrated program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=1,588 classifiable Thoracic Surgery - Integrated applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
40%→52%
+12 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
⚠ thin sample (n=63)
Geo tie only
67%→93%
+27 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=15)
Away rotation only
82%→85%
+3 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=27)
Geo + away
94%→95%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=16)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 36 of 36
University of MichiganMI 49 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 49 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal45%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 48 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal41%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 43 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Utah HealthUT 46 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal44%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ohio State University HospitalOH 48 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal46%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical University of South CarolinaSC 48 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal44%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
New York Presbyterian Hospital (Columbia Campus)NY 47 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal37%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 44 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cedars-Sinai Medical CenterCA 44 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal42%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of North Carolina HospitalsNC 46 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical EducationPA 48 in your cohortSelectivity 262
Your P(interview) herewithout signal44%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Indiana University School of MedicineIN 45 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 44 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 41 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Iowa Health Care Medical CenterIA 44 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 43 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 45 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 42 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern UniversityIL 49 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal41%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Florida College of MedicineFL 44 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNY 44 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 46 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MarylandMD 48 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal45%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Pennsylvania Health SystemPA 49 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal36%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Emory University School of MedicineGA 45 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal39%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Duke University HospitalNC 49 in your cohortSelectivity 263
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →