Signal Strategy: Diagnostic Radiology
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What a signal adds at a typical Radiology-Diagnostic program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=27,604 classifiable Radiology-Diagnostic applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 201
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 254No signal11%With signal85%155 applicants
- Selectivity 257No signal12%With signal85%116 applicants
- Selectivity 261No signal20%With signal85%201 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 257No signal9%With signal84%238 applicants8.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 87/133 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Signal requiredSelectivity 261No signal17%With signal84%254 applicants8.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 56/185 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 259No signal30%With signal84%136 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 252No signal9%With signal82%134 applicants12.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 31/95 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 255No signal14%With signal81%109 applicants
- Selectivity 260No signal30%With signal81%199 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 260No signal13%With signal81%203 applicants9.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 66/119 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Signal requiredSelectivity 257No signal5%With signal81%224 applicants6.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 33/175 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 256No signal7%With signal81%152 applicants
- Selectivity 252No signal8%With signal81%113 applicants
- Selectivity 254No signal16%With signal81%115 applicants
- Selectivity 256No signal22%With signal80%138 applicants
- 7.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 38/184 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 254No signal11%With signal79%120 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 254No signal6%With signal79%182 applicants8.5% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 59/107 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 253No signal9%With signal79%147 applicants
- No signal8%With signal79%110 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal11%With signal79%149 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 252No signal6%With signal79%138 applicants13.3% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 30/90 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Signal requiredSelectivity 253No signal5%With signal79%183 applicants7.3% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 41/127 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 256No signal20%With signal78%93 applicants
- Selectivity 259No signal15%With signal78%123 applicants
- Selectivity 258No signal18%With signal77%246 applicants
- Selectivity 255No signal18%With signal77%175 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 252No signal12%With signal77%240 applicants6.3% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 63/159 · 3 cycles
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Gold vs silver: each program’s own gold and silver invite rates are scaled onto your blended estimate, so the button you pick re-prices the row. When a tier has fewer than 10 reports, or gold and silver land within sampling noise, the two share the single blended estimate (the same 10-report floor used for strata).
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Diagnostic Radiology limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.