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Signal strategy

Radiation Oncology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 4 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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Pick specialty
before May
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now
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by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Radiation Oncology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=3,204 classifiable Radiation Oncology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
53%→67%
+13 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
⚠ thin sample (n=81)
Geo tie only
78%→75%
no measurable change
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=51)
Away rotation only
86%→84%
no measurable change
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=25)
Geo + away
85%→90%
+4 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=48)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 86
Johns Hopkins UniversityMD 73 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal78%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 36 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Wisconsin Hospitals and ClinicsWI 47 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal56%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Emory University School of MedicineGA 63 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal56%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
MedStar Health Georgetown UniversityDC 43 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/Robert Wood Johnson Medical SchoolNJ 33 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU Health)OR 29 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal50%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Vanderbilt University Medical CenterTN 59 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of North Carolina HospitalsNC 59 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 15 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 240
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 50 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal51%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 51 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
New York Presbyterian Hospital (Columbia Campus)NY 41 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 38 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 45 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-TucsonAZ 24 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Loyola University Medical CenterIL 38 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rush University Medical CenterIL 34 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 21 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 16 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 20 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 62 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tufts Medical CenterMA 42 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 34 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 17 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 238
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 21 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Maimonides Medical Center/SUNY Downstate HSUNY 16 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 239
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cedars-Sinai Medical CenterCA 20 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical University of South CarolinaSC 27 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 65 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia University School of MedicineWV 14 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MichiganMI 59 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kaiser Permanente Southern California (Los Angeles)CA 26 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Loma Linda University Health Education ConsortiumCA 16 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern UniversityIL 53 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
New York-Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist HospitalNY 12 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ohio State University HospitalOH 46 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook MedicineNY 17 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (Irvine)CA 20 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →