Signal Strategy: Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
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What a signal adds at a typical Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=10,775 classifiable Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 118
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 242No signal17%With signal73%142 applicants
- Selectivity 247No signal28%With signal70%73 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal18%With signal68%142 applicants
- Selectivity 245No signal10%With signal67%91 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal16%With signal67%115 applicants
- Selectivity 242No signal10%With signal66%84 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 237No signal11%With signal66%12 applicants
- Signal usually requiredSelectivity 249No signal15%With signal65%182 applicants10.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 55/103 · 3 cycles
- No signal11%With signal65%73 applicants
- No signal21%With signal64%66 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal16%With signal64%109 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal16%With signal63%54 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal9%With signal62%100 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal10%With signal61%40 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal8%With signal61%106 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal14%With signal61%127 applicants
- Selectivity 238No signal17%With signal60%42 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal16%With signal60%71 applicants
- Selectivity 247No signal8%With signal59%116 applicants
- University of Texas Health Science Center San Antonio Joe and Teresa Lozano Long School of MedicineTXSelectivity 242No signal6%With signal58%93 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal18%With signal58%90 applicants
- Selectivity 252No signal13%With signal58%121 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 240No signal28%With signal57%16 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal15%With signal57%43 applicants
- No signal13%With signal57%45 applicants
- No signal9%With signal56%80 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.