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Signal strategy

Pediatrics

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 5 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
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Pick signals
now
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by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Pediatrics program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=40,941 classifiable Pediatrics applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
55%→78%
+23 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
78%→87%
+10 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
90%→93%
+3 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=169)
Geo + away
94%→96%
+2 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=293)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 206
Carolinas Medical CenterNC 418 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal74%→with signal99%
8.9%signaled0.34%no signal26xmatch-rate liftn = 56/297 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Children’s Mercy HospitalMO 337 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal86%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Indiana University School of MedicineIN 409 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal76%→with signal99%
22.4%signaled0.38%no signal59xmatch-rate liftn = 67/265 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU Health)OR 345 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal99%
8.1%signaled0.94%no signal9xmatch-rate liftn = 62/213 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MinnesotaMN 281 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal75%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical SchoolTX 358 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal76%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Alabama Hospital (Birmingham)AL 269 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal89%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 343 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal88%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 161 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal79%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 186 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal76%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 383 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal99%
11.4%signaled0.79%no signal14xmatch-rate liftn = 35/252 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MichiganMI 478 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal50%→with signal98%
13.3%signaled0.98%no signal14xmatch-rate liftn = 75/307 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Phoenix Children's HospitalAZ 377 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of HawaiiHI 70 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tulane UniversityLA 119 in your cohortSelectivity 240
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 313 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal72%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Children's Hospital of MichiganMI 256 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal60%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Nationwide Children's Hospital/Ohio State UniversityOH 586 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal73%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 257 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal80%→with signal96%
15.2%signaled0.99%no signal15xmatch-rate liftn = 33/202 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 148 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal77%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterTX 369 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal84%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of North Carolina HospitalsNC 633 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal42%→with signal96%
6.7%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 120/402 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 250 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal74%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of South Florida MorsaniFL 162 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ConnecticutCT 296 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal81%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Dartmouth-Hitchcock/Mary Hitchcock Memorial HospitalNH 169 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SSM Health/Saint Louis University School of MedicineMO 196 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal71%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UCSF Benioff Children’s Hospital OaklandCA 215 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal84%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
ECU Health Medical Center/East Carolina UniversityNC 117 in your cohortSelectivity 239
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Utah HealthUT 274 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal72%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 369 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Nicklaus Children's HospitalFL 178 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal71%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tower Health/St. Christopher's Hospital for ChildrenPA 306 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal77%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Wisconsin Hospitals and ClinicsWI 302 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical EducationPA 478 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal50%→with signal94%
15.7%signaled0.32%no signal49xmatch-rate liftn = 83/308 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Loyola University Medical CenterIL 213 in your cohortSelectivity 239
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-TucsonAZ 180 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal69%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Orlando Health/Arnold Palmer Hospital for ChildrenFL 161 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal78%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Iowa Health Care Medical CenterIA 210 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal72%→with signal93%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Health Science Center at HoustonTX 257 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal93%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →