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Signal strategy

Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 25 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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Sept 2
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Oct-Dec
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Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
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Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=25,244 classifiable Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
9%→43%
+34 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
29%→59%
+30 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
78%→83%
+5 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=109)
Geo + away
89%→91%
+3 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=62)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 128
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 202 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal74%
5.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 40/53 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityNY 202 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal74%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wayne State University School of MedicineMI 212 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 177 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 226 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Southern Illinois UniversityIL 167 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 176 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal72%
9.4%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 32/53 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Missouri-ColumbiaMO 183 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal71%
6.7%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 30/50 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 208 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal71%
8.2%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 49/37 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 161 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Penn State Milton S Hershey Medical CenterPA 213 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of South Florida MorsaniFL 219 in your cohortSelectivity 263
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 232 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 177 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 164 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Houston Methodist Hospital (Medical Center)TX 30 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Westchester Medical CenterNY 134 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 103 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Health Science Center at HoustonTX 223 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 226 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal63%
7.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 41/59 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 193 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (Irvine)CA 192 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Illinois College of Medicine at ChicagoIL 253 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal62%
5.7%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 70/57 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 226 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 223 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal62%
6.4%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 47/53 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McLaren Health Care/Oakland/MSUMI 83 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 209 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal61%
6.1%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 33/58 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 164 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Lehigh Valley Health NetworkPA 71 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ConnecticutCT 221 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal60%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 46/52 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 175 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal59%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 31/41 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 42 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/New Jersey Medical SchoolNJ 219 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kettering Health NetworkOH 70 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of Wisconsin Affiliated HospitalsWI 250 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-TucsonAZ 72 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal4%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 229 in your cohortSelectivity 263
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 209 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →