Signal Strategy: Obstetrics and Gynecology
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What a signal adds at a typical Obstetrics and Gynecology program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=57,238 classifiable Obstetrics and Gynecology applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 309
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Signal usually requiredNo signal11%With signal83%154 applicants10.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 55/69 · 3 cycles
- No signal28%With signal81%135 applicants
- 13.8% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 58/71 · 3 cycles
- Signal usually requiredNo signal23%With signal79%273 applicants14.3% matched with a signal1.00% without14x match-rate liftn = 112/100 · 3 cycles
- 6.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 49/76 · 3 cycles
- No signal19%With signal78%85 applicants
- Signal usually requiredNo signal21%With signal75%161 applicants8.0% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 50/68 · 3 cycles
- No signal5%With signal74%122 applicants
- No signal8%With signal73%76 applicants
- 12.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 33/73 · 3 cycles
- 6.5% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 31/95 · 3 cycles
- No signal27%With signal72%113 applicants
- Signal usually requiredNo signal26%With signal71%166 applicants6.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 49/82 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Signal usually requiredNo signal8%With signal70%149 applicants5.3% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 38/75 · 3 cycles
- 5.6% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 36/92 · 3 cycles
- No signal8%With signal69%142 applicants
- No signal9%With signal68%110 applicants
- Signal usually requiredNo signal7%With signal68%171 applicants8.0% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 50/85 · 3 cycles
- No signal17%With signal68%105 applicants
- No signal12%With signal68%193 applicants
- 14.5% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 55/95 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Gold vs silver: each program’s own gold and silver invite rates are scaled onto your blended estimate, so the button you pick re-prices the row. When a tier has fewer than 10 reports, or gold and silver land within sampling noise, the two share the single blended estimate (the same 10-report floor used for strata).
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Obstetrics and Gynecology limit this cycle