Signal Strategy: Neurology
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
What a signal adds at a typical Neurology program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=17,864 classifiable Neurology applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 204
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 250No signal19%With signal82%178 applicants
- Selectivity 252No signal42%With signal77%114 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal32%With signal76%92 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal47%With signal76%109 applicants
- Selectivity 249No signal27%With signal75%126 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal38%With signal75%89 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 252No signal31%With signal75%128 applicants12.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 31/72 · 3 cycles
- Signal requiredSelectivity 249No signal11%With signal75%192 applicants9.7% matched with a signal0.85% without11x match-rate liftn = 31/117 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 247No signal17%With signal74%84 applicants
- Selectivity 245No signal24%With signal74%98 applicants
- No signal30%With signal73%57 applicants
- Selectivity 239No signal27%With signal73%54 applicants
- Selectivity 249No signal24%With signal73%138 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal25%With signal73%73 applicants
- No signal31%With signal73%205 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal16%With signal73%113 applicants
- No signal41%With signal73%94 applicants
- Selectivity 239No signal25%With signal73%66 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal22%With signal72%77 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal28%With signal72%67 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal24%With signal72%97 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 251No signal20%With signal72%183 applicants9.4% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 32/113 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- No signal26%With signal72%35 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Neurology limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.