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Signal strategy

Neurology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 5 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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before May
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now
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by Sept
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Sept 2
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Oct-Dec
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Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Neurology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=23,447 classifiable Neurology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
29%→67%
+38 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
56%→78%
+22 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
75%→89%
+14 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=99)
Geo + away
90%→95%
+5 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=122)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 188
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 234 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal26%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ChicagoIL 248 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Vanderbilt University Medical CenterTN 279 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal86%
9.7%signaled0.85%no signal11xmatch-rate liftn = 31/117 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 130 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 175 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal44%→with signal86%
12.9%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 31/72 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 256 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal51%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Health Science Center at HoustonTX 158 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal50%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Utah HealthUT 140 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal37%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (Irvine)CA 142 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Wisconsin Hospitals and ClinicsWI 166 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal42%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 154 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal42%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (San Diego) Medical CenterCA 207 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal29%→with signal83%
9.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 41/94 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 108 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal45%→with signal82%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai/WestNY 127 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal29%→with signal82%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Miami/Jackson Health SystemFL 156 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal36%→with signal82%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of South Florida MorsaniFL 123 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal35%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 117 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal35%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
HCA HealthONE/Swedish Medical CenterCO 77 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Cincinnati Medical Center/College of MedicineOH 232 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal81%
9.4%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 32/113 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/Robert Wood Johnson Medical SchoolNJ 113 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal36%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 117 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 280 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal81%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 31/133 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical Education (Pittsburgh)PA 256 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Dartmouth-Hitchcock/Mary Hitchcock Memorial HospitalNH 167 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal34%→with signal80%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
MaineHealthME 37 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal31%→with signal80%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health System (Danville)PA 75 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal35%→with signal80%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 116 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal38%→with signal80%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MarylandMD 235 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal45%→with signal80%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 282 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal35%→with signal80%
15.6%signaled0.72%no signal22xmatch-rate liftn = 32/138 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kaiser Permanente Southern California (Los Angeles)CA 117 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal35%→with signal79%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 73 in your cohortSelectivity 239
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal79%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityNY 103 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal34%→with signal79%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Lehigh Valley Health NetworkPA 76 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal36%→with signal79%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 135 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal40%→with signal78%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Detroit Medical Center/Wayne State UniversityMI 113 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal32%→with signal78%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 190 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal39%→with signal78%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-PhoenixAZ 94 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal40%→with signal77%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kettering Health NetworkOH 50 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal77%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →