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Signal strategy

Neurological Surgery

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 25 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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Pick specialty
before May
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Pick signals
now
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by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Neurological Surgery program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=8,646 classifiable Neurological Surgery applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
14%→44%
+31 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
36%→61%
+26 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=179)
Away rotation only
85%→92%
+7 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=41)
Geo + away
100%→96%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=11)
Sort:|Geo:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 116
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 53 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Houston Methodist Hospital (Medical Center)TX 83 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 53 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal27%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
George Washington UniversityDC 78 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 57 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Wisconsin Hospitals and ClinicsWI 76 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ChicagoIL 94 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 78 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 80 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal61%
5.9%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 34/35 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 56 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 80 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 76 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal6%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 42 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 71 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 65 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 77 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 81 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 75 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 81 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 83 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of South Florida MorsaniFL 85 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal27%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cedars-Sinai Medical CenterCA 75 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal58%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 31/37 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health SystemPA 58 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Connecticut School of MedicineCT 74 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rush University Medical CenterIL 103 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNY 82 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal57%
6.1%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 33/31 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of Wisconsin Affiliated HospitalsWI 62 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterTX 89 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical EducationPA 73 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal56%
8.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 34/31 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 71 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal9%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Penn State Milton S Hershey Medical CenterPA 72 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal11%→with signal55%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tufts Medical CenterMA 95 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal5%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Riverside University Health SystemCA 31 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rhode Island Hospital/Brown University HealthRI 23 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal10%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 61 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal26%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 60 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal8%→with signal53%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →