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Signal strategy

Neurological Surgery

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 25 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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before May
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now
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by Sept
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Sept 2
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Oct-Dec
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Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Neurological Surgery program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=13,147 classifiable Neurological Surgery applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
18%→45%
+27 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
42%→60%
+18 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=351)
Away rotation only
91%→90%
no measurable change
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=93)
Geo + away
97%→93%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=34)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 115
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 84 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 76 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 116 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal32%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ChicagoIL 135 in your cohortSelectivity 260
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 104 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cedars-Sinai Medical CenterCA 119 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal65%
6.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 31/37 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Dartmouth-Hitchcock/Mary Hitchcock Memorial HospitalNH 106 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 123 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 106 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal26%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 132 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal64%
5.9%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 34/35 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 15 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of GeorgiaGA 92 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal26%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 67 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 99 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterTX 137 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal63%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Wisconsin Hospitals and ClinicsWI 119 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
George Washington UniversityDC 122 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal62%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 122 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Penn State Milton S Hershey Medical CenterPA 113 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 113 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 122 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal13%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical College of Wisconsin Affiliated HospitalsWI 97 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 113 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal61%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 143 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tulane University/Ochsner Clinic FoundationLA 122 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal29%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 89 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal60%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 93 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tufts Medical CenterMA 137 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of South Florida MorsaniFL 130 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MinnesotaMN 107 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal59%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Connecticut School of MedicineCT 102 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal36%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rush University Medical CenterIL 151 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 88 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 106 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal27%→with signal58%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Southern Illinois University School of MedicineIL 68 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health SystemPA 85 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ColoradoCO 153 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 128 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal7%→with signal57%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical EducationPA 124 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal57%
8.8%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 34/31 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-TucsonAZ 39 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal56%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →