Signal Strategy: Neurological Surgery
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What a signal adds at a typical Neurological Surgery program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=8,646 classifiable Neurological Surgery applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 123
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 257No signal14%With signal61%69 applicants
- Selectivity 254No signal11%With signal61%78 applicants
- 5.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 34/35 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 256No signal22%With signal61%56 applicants
- Selectivity 258No signal5%With signal61%80 applicants
- No signal24%With signal60%55 applicants
- Selectivity 258No signal17%With signal60%65 applicants
- Selectivity 254No signal11%With signal60%62 applicants
- No signal30%With signal58%64 applicants
- 6.5% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 31/37 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 259No signal5%With signal58%74 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal28%With signal57%74 applicants
- Selectivity 261No signal24%With signal57%45 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 254No signal7%With signal57%82 applicants6.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 33/31 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 255No signal8%With signal56%62 applicants
- Selectivity 256No signal11%With signal56%54 applicants
- Selectivity 254No signal5%With signal56%89 applicants
- 8.8% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 34/31 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 257No signal21%With signal55%54 applicants
- No signal19%With signal55%13 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 253No signal10%With signal54%23 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Neurological Surgery limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.