Signal Strategy: Internal Medicine
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What a signal adds at a typical Internal Medicine program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=82,337 classifiable Internal Medicine applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 699
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 249No signal41%With signal84%305 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal46%With signal84%213 applicants
- Selectivity 252No signal56%With signal82%168 applicants
- 14.0% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 43/71 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 255No signal32%With signal80%52 applicants
- No signal42%With signal79%124 applicants
- Selectivity 248No signal45%With signal78%45 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal31%With signal78%239 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 257No signal34%With signal78%283 applicants6.7% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 75/168 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 250No signal48%With signal77%357 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 256No signal24%With signal77%599 applicants18.1% matched with a signal0.42% without43x match-rate liftn = 259/240 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 254No signal35%With signal77%415 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 250No signal32%With signal76%220 applicants13.3% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 45/124 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 248No signal18%With signal76%125 applicants
- Selectivity 254No signal26%With signal76%315 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 250No signal24%With signal76%215 applicants17.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 35/132 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- No signal37%With signal76%91 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 254No signal9%With signal76%270 applicants12.2% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 49/168 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 248No signal47%With signal75%198 applicants
- Selectivity 243No signal41%With signal75%45 applicants
- Selectivity 246No signal34%With signal75%114 applicants
- Selectivity 248No signal49%With signal75%74 applicants
- No signal31%With signal75%90 applicants
- Selectivity 244No signal38%With signal74%43 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Gold vs silver: each program’s own gold and silver invite rates are scaled onto your blended estimate, so the button you pick re-prices the row. When a tier has fewer than 10 reports, or gold and silver land within sampling noise, the two share the single blended estimate (the same 10-report floor used for strata).
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Internal Medicine limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.