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Signal strategy

General Surgery

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 5 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
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Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical General Surgery program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=70,023 classifiable General Surgery applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
16%→48%
+32 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
34%→58%
+23 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
74%→85%
+11 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=370)
Geo + away
83%→87%
+4 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=329)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 346
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 290 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal81%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Oklahoma Health Sciences CenterOK 190 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal77%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Advocate Health CareIL 120 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal76%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 337 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal76%
9.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 43/145 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas (Wichita)KS 152 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 196 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
TriHealth (Good Samaritan Hospital)OH 151 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
HonorHealthAZ 120 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal75%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cooper Medical School of Rowan University/Cooper University HospitalNJ 259 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal29%→with signal74%
12.9%signaled0.88%no signal15xmatch-rate liftn = 31/114 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Mount Carmel Health SystemOH 112 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal73%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Main Line Health System/Lankenau Medical CenterPA 150 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal72%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
OhioHealth/Riverside Methodist HospitalOH 148 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
OhioHealth/Doctors HospitalOH 80 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ochsner Clinic FoundationLA 226 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal30%→with signal71%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor University Medical CenterTX 436 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal70%
8.1%signaled0.60%no signal13xmatch-rate liftn = 62/168 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 217 in your cohortSelectivity 257
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal70%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
USA HealthAL 138 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal35%→with signal69%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science (Rochester)MN 368 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal69%
7.9%signaled0.56%no signal14xmatch-rate liftn = 38/178 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Miami/Jackson Health SystemFL 380 in your cohortSignal usually requiredSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal31%→with signal69%
9.1%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 33/190 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 264 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 308 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 174 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal23%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Novant Health New Hanover Regional Medical CenterNC 148 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Medical Branch HospitalsTX 206 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal68%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Michigan Health - SparrowMI 76 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Houston Methodist Hospital (Medical Center)TX 37 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal17%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Iowa Health Care Medical CenterIA 33 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal67%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 438 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal12%→with signal67%
6.4%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 47/186 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 298 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 180 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Health Science Center at TylerTX 110 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Franciscan Health Olympia FieldsIL 88 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health System (Wilkes Barre)PA 132 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal21%→with signal66%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Cincinnati Medical Center/College of MedicineOH 336 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal18%→with signal65%
13.5%signaled0.65%no signal21xmatch-rate liftn = 37/154 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Creighton University School of Medicine (Omaha)NE 176 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 172 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal25%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
HCA HealthONE/Sky Ridge Medical CenterCO 101 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal24%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ConnecticutCT 359 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Orlando HealthFL 218 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal26%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Texas Tech University HSC El PasoTX 93 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal20%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Hennepin HealthcareMN 155 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal22%→with signal65%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Loma Linda University Health Education ConsortiumCA 183 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan - BaystateMA 203 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal19%→with signal64%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →