Signal Strategy: General Surgery
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What a signal adds at a typical General Surgery program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=49,755 classifiable General Surgery applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 368
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 250No signal20%With signal82%136 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 256No signal27%With signal72%183 applicants12.9% matched with a signal0.88% without15x match-rate liftn = 31/114 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- No signal26%With signal70%149 applicants
- No signal16%With signal69%142 applicants
- Selectivity 247No signal17%With signal67%111 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 255No signal15%With signal65%255 applicants7.9% matched with a signal0.56% without14x match-rate liftn = 38/178 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 254No signal11%With signal65%152 applicants
- 9.3% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 43/145 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 252No signal6%With signal65%81 applicants
- Selectivity 249No signal16%With signal64%114 applicants
- No signal13%With signal64%177 applicants
- No signal9%With signal64%78 applicants
- Selectivity 247No signal17%With signal64%72 applicants
- Signal usually requiredNo signal15%With signal63%245 applicants13.5% matched with a signal0.65% without21x match-rate liftn = 37/154 · 3 cycles
- Selectivity 253No signal27%With signal63%80 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal20%With signal63%125 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal11%With signal62%116 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your General Surgery limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.