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Signal strategy

Family Medicine

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 5 program signals used
0 of 3 geographic signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Family Medicine program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=28,733 classifiable Family Medicine applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
58%→79%
+21 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
75%→87%
+12 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
90%→97%
+6 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=119)
Geo + away
96%→97%
+2 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=293)
Geographic signals
0 of 3 chosen

Separate from program signals. Pick regions you’re flexible about. Programs in those regions weight your application favorably.

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Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 721
MultiCare Health System (Tacoma)WA 114 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal69%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Minnesota/Methodist HospitalMN 78 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal76%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Missouri-ColumbiaMO 56 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal80%→with signal99%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Inova Fairfax Medical CampusVA 88 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal71%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
ProHealth Waukesha Memorial HospitalWI 61 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal81%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas (Wichita)/SalinaKS 33 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Minnesota/North Memorial HospitalMN 98 in your cohortSelectivity 239
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Poudre Valley Hospital/Fort Collins Family MedicineCO 107 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal74%→with signal98%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University/TJUHPA 189 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal46%→with signal98%
13.7%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 51/97 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
North Colorado Medical CenterCO 173 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal97%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 86 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal71%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-PhoenixAZ 89 in your cohortSelectivity 240
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Minnesota/CentraCare St. CloudMN 56 in your cohortSelectivity 238
Your P(interview) herewithout signal73%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas (Wichita)/WesleyKS 48 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal80%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tufts University at Cambridge Health AllianceMA 135 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Central Iowa Health System (Iowa Lutheran Hospital)IA 34 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal76%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Greater Lawrence Family Health CenterMA 106 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal85%→with signal96%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 78 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University (Shreveport)LA 21 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Munson Medical CenterMI 26 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 240
Your P(interview) herewithout signal72%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Saint Joseph Health SystemIN 24 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal73%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Montana Family Medicine ResidencyMT 87 in your cohortSelectivity 240
Your P(interview) herewithout signal77%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MarylandMD 89 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal69%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
PeaceHealth Southwest Medical CenterWA 67 in your cohortSelectivity 239
Your P(interview) herewithout signal71%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
St Mary's Hospital and Medical CenterCO 68 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal75%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
St Peter Hospital (Olympia)WA 61 in your cohortSelectivity 240
Your P(interview) herewithout signal74%→with signal95%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ventura County Medical CenterCA 103 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal95%
12.9%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 31/66 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Novant Health New Hanover Regional Medical CenterNC 38 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Minnesota/Woodwinds HospitalMN 82 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal81%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterTX 118 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal72%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Allina HealthMN 69 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal84%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
St Elizabeth Medical CenterKY 62 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal75%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Providence Hospital/Alaska Family MedicineAK 50 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal79%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Atrium Health CabarrusNC 62 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →