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Signal strategy

Emergency Medicine

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift - how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state - below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 5 program signals used
0 of 3 geographic signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Emergency Medicine program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=45,749 classifiable Emergency Medicine applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
46%→73%
+27 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
70%→80%
+10 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
95%→95%
no measurable change
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=191)
Geo + away
98%→99%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=436)
Geographic signals
0 of 3 chosen

Separate from program signals. Pick regions you’re flexible about. Programs in those regions weight your application favorably.

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Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 274
University of Nebraska Medical CenterNE 176 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal77%→with signal94%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Indiana University School of MedicineIN 442 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal63%→with signal93%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 309 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal56%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Pennsylvania Health SystemPA 345 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal48%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cook County Health and Hospitals SystemIL 477 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal34%→with signal89%
5.7%signaled0.69%no signal8xmatch-rate liftn = 70/289 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 285 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal49%→with signal89%
8.1%signaled0.51%no signal16xmatch-rate liftn = 37/197 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Case Western Reserve University/University Hospitals Cleveland Medical CenterOH 333 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal89%
10.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 30/233 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Miami/Jackson Health SystemFL 260 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal56%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Iowa Health Care Medical CenterIA 165 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 145 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical Education (Pittsburgh)PA 386 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal43%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Missouri-ColumbiaMO 132 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Albany Med Health SystemNY 159 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Orlando HealthFL 244 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan - BaystateMA 197 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal47%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
ECU Health Medical Center/East Carolina UniversityNC 228 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic Foundation/Akron GeneralOH 120 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal57%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 408 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal26%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 123 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal60%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MichiganMI 327 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Southern Illinois University School of MedicineIL 136 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ToledoOH 122 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 253 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal56%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kaiser Permanente Northern CaliforniaCA 109 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal57%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 333 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal41%→with signal85%
16.1%signaled0.44%no signal37xmatch-rate liftn = 31/226 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 293 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal51%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kirk Kerkorian School of Medicine at UNLVNV 174 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Desert Regional Medical CenterCA 100 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal47%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 209 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University/TJUHPA 351 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal33%→with signal84%
10.0%signaled0.85%no signal12xmatch-rate liftn = 30/234 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityNY 251 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 175 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 136 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Corewell Health William Beaumont University HospitalMI 102 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rutgers Health/Robert Wood Johnson Medical SchoolNJ 148 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal49%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor All Saints Medical Center Fort WorthTX 112 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal50%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 - signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% - you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats - with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →