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Signal strategy

Emergency Medicine

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 8 program signals used
0 of 3 geographic signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
●
Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Emergency Medicine program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=61,953 classifiable Emergency Medicine applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
47%→73%
+26 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
Geo tie only
70%→80%
+10 pp with signal
Home-state programs
Away rotation only
96%→95%
no measurable change
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=222)
Geo + away
98%→99%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=467)
Geographic signals
0 of 3 chosen

Separate from program signals. Pick regions you’re flexible about. Programs in those regions weight your application favorably.

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Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 277
UPMC Medical Education (Pittsburgh)PA 524 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal49%→with signal93%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Nebraska Medical CenterNE 231 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal75%→with signal92%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Miami/Jackson Health SystemFL 363 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal59%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University/TJUHPA 455 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal34%→with signal90%
10.0%signaled0.85%no signal12xmatch-rate liftn = 30/234 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Case Western Reserve University/University Hospitals Cleveland Medical CenterOH 450 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal90%
10.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 30/233 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
ECU Health Medical Center/East Carolina UniversityNC 295 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Missouri-ColumbiaMO 181 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal69%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan - BaystateMA 260 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal49%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 526 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal28%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Downstate Health Sciences UniversityNY 354 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal69%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Pennsylvania Health SystemPA 458 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal46%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
New York Presbyterian HospitalNY 373 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
West Virginia UniversityWV 194 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal67%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Orlando HealthFL 328 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal87%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Southern Illinois University School of MedicineIL 185 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
SUNY Upstate Medical UniversityNY 167 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal57%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
New York-Presbyterian/QueensNY 163 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 456 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal47%→with signal86%
16.1%signaled0.44%no signal37xmatch-rate liftn = 31/226 · 3 cycles
● Holds for Step 2 250+
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Henry Ford Health/Henry Ford HospitalMI 439 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal59%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Texas Tech University HSC El PasoTX 143 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kansas School of MedicineKS 272 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal86%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Maimonides Medical CenterNY 332 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal59%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Lakeland Regional HealthFL 111 in your cohortSelectivity 241
Your P(interview) herewithout signal63%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Summa Health SystemOH 80 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal56%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ToledoOH 159 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MichiganMI 318 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal54%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 252 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal60%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Indiana University School of MedicineIN 579 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ConnecticutCT 320 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 418 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal52%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 410 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal47%→with signal85%
8.1%signaled0.51%no signal16xmatch-rate liftn = 37/197 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of FloridaFL 296 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal85%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 412 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal53%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 421 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal49%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Illinois College of Medicine at PeoriaIL 249 in your cohortSelectivity 243
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 229 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Kaiser Permanente Northern CaliforniaCA 167 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal84%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →