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Signal strategy

Dermatology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 28 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
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before May
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now
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by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Dermatology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=20,304 classifiable Dermatology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
8%→39%
+31 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
⚠ thin sample (n=178)
Geo tie only
36%→54%
+18 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=102)
Away rotation only
86%→80%
no measurable change
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=5)
Geo + away
88%→80%
no measurable change
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=5)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 139
University of Utah HealthUT 153 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Yale-New Haven Medical CenterCT 174 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ColoradoCO 203 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal54%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health SystemPA 175 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi School of MedicineMS 131 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNY 146 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal52%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Louisiana State University School of MedicineLA 145 in your cohortSignal usually required
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal52%
10.0%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 40/23 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Boston University Medical CenterMA 194 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Wisconsin Hospitals and ClinicsWI 187 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Ohio State University HospitalOH 171 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Southern Illinois UniversityIL 152 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal50%
5.7%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 35/34 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UPMC Medical EducationPA 175 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
UMass Chan Medical SchoolMA 168 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 159 in your cohortSelectivity 259
Your P(interview) herewithout signal14%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Campbell UniversityNC 78 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal50%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Johns Hopkins UniversityMD 171 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal48%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of South Florida MorsaniFL 137 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal48%
5.3%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 38/23 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern UniversityIL 193 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal48%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 136 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 136 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
7.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 40/19 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tulane UniversityLA 169 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal16%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Indiana University School of MedicineIN 178 in your cohortSelectivity 261
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
HonorHealthAZ 122 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University/TJUHPA 164 in your cohortSignal requiredSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
7.5%signaled0.00%no signal∞match-rate liftn = 40/32 · 3 cycles
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Temple University HospitalPA 164 in your cohortSelectivity 255
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/NorthwellNY 141 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
OhioHealth/Riverside Methodist HospitalOH 116 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Louisville School of MedicineKY 120 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wright State UniversityOH 122 in your cohortSelectivity 254
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal47%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Vanderbilt University Medical CenterTN 224 in your cohortSelectivity 262
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 220 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal46%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 168 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU Health)OR 101 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Arizona College of Medicine-TucsonAZ 34 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MarylandMD 160 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Vermont Medical CenterVT 132 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 152 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Rush University Medical CenterIL 197 in your cohortSelectivity 256
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MichiganMI 129 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal15%→with signal45%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →