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Signal strategy

Child Neurology

Programs ranked by empirical signal lift — how much sending a signal moves your interview probability, computed from real applicant data across 22 specialties.

Your stratum
Set your stats to re-rank
Step 2 CK, applicant type, home state — below.
Your signal budget for this specialty
0 of 5 program signals used
ERAS submissions open
 
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
Where you are in the cycle · 2026-2027
✓
Pick specialty
before May
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Pick signals
now
Build apply list
by Sept
Submit ERAS
Sept 2
Track invites
Oct-Dec
Build rank list
Feb 25
Match Day
Mar 19
Try your stats
Re-rank for your applicant cohort. No account needed.
P(interview) at a typical Child Neurology program
Real probabilities from raw applicant data. Both columns are real numbers; the arrow shows what signaling adds.
methodology
raw cross-tab, n=4,925 classifiable Child Neurology applicants. P(invite) = k_invited / n per cell of (signaled × geographic_connection × away_rotation). Cells with thin sample sizes (n < 500 in the limiting arm) carry wider real CIs than shown here; treat directionally.
No ties
61%→82%
+21 pp with signal
Pure signal effect
⚠ thin sample (n=149)
Geo tie only
77%→89%
+12 pp with signal
Home-state programs
⚠ thin sample (n=131)
Away rotation only
93%→100%
+7 pp with signal
You rotated there
⚠ thin sample (n=16)
Geo + away
95%→98%
+3 pp with signal
Already very likely
⚠ thin sample (n=42)
Sort:

Where you’re most likely to land an interview

showing 50 of 78
Johns Hopkins UniversityMD 104 in your cohortSelectivity 258
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal92%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Baylor College of MedicineTX 107 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal69%→with signal92%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MichiganMI 65 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal92%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Washington University/B-JH/SLCH ConsortiumMO 100 in your cohortSelectivity 253
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas Southwestern Medical CenterTX 73 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal70%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of WashingtonWA 77 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ColoradoCO 113 in your cohortSelectivity 252
Your P(interview) herewithout signal58%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical SchoolTX 68 in your cohortSelectivity 248
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal91%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
New York Presbyterian Hospital (Columbia Campus)NY 65 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal57%→with signal90%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Duke University HospitalNC 129 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal90%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
NYU Grossman School of MedicineNY 67 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal90%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Phoenix Children's HospitalAZ 89 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California Davis HealthCA 40 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Utah HealthUT 61 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal67%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of ChicagoIL 89 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal61%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Florida College of MedicineFL 30 in your cohortSelectivity 244
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
McGaw Medical Center of Northwestern UniversityIL 114 in your cohortSelectivity 251
Your P(interview) herewithout signal55%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Medical University of South CarolinaSC 59 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNY 42 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal63%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU Health)OR 32 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of New Mexico School of MedicineNM 29 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Alabama Hospital (Birmingham)AL 7 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Nationwide Children's Hospital/Ohio State UniversityOH 116 in your cohortSelectivity 250
Your P(interview) herewithout signal68%→with signal89%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Geisinger Health SystemPA 32 in your cohortSelectivity 242
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University at BuffaloNY 21 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal63%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of North Carolina HospitalsNC 110 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Virginia Medical CenterVA 65 in your cohortSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Virginia Commonwealth University Health SystemVA 55 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Wake Forest University Baptist Medical CenterNC 81 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Indiana University School of MedicineIN 65 in your cohortSelectivity 249
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Stony Brook Medicine/University HospitalNY 27 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of California (Irvine)CA 46 in your cohortSelectivity 247
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Cleveland Clinic FoundationOH 81 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Kentucky College of MedicineKY 48 in your cohortSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Mississippi Medical CenterMS 18 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal66%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of MinnesotaMN 10 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 246
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Tower HealthPA 16 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal62%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Puerto RicoPR 4 in your cohortLow N
Your P(interview) herewithout signal63%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
University of Rochester Medical CenterNY 5 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 245
Your P(interview) herewithout signal65%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Boston University Medical CenterMA 71 in your cohort
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
Detroit Medical Center/Wayne State UniversityMI 12 in your cohortLow NSelectivity 237
Your P(interview) herewithout signal64%→with signal88%
0%50%100% P(interview)
Your relationship to this program
Geo tie?
Rotated here?
How these numbers are computed

Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) − P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate is lower than unsignaled in the source (small-N sample noise), we floor the lift at 0 — signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds, and the UI shouldn’t lie.

Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When n < 10 in your exact stratum, we fall back to the program’s overall rollup so you still get a number, just less personalized.

Tier: Reach (matched-invitee mean is 8+ above your Step 2, or signal can’t rescue), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) > 50% — you’ll interview without a signal). The signal slider hides on Safety and on unrescuable Reach rows where worthSignaling is false.

Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no statistically measurable effect leave the number unchanged.

Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in unmeasured ways like geographic ties, mentorship, prior aways); programs with fewer than ~30 reports have wide CIs.

For the full picture

/match-plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match), and tier per program for your specific stats — with primary + backup specialty support and signal-budget allocation.

Open Match Plan →