Signal Strategy: Child Neurology
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What a signal adds at a typical Child Neurology program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=3,356 classifiable Child Neurology applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 84
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Selectivity 248No signal72%With signal97%46 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal72%With signal95%43 applicants
- Selectivity 245No signal74%With signal95%47 applicants
- Selectivity 251No signal71%With signal94%39 applicants
- Selectivity 244No signal71%With signal93%42 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 244No signal68%With signal92%24 applicants
- No signal68%With signal92%12 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 244No signal71%With signal92%29 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 242No signal68%With signal92%29 applicants
- Selectivity 245No signal67%With signal92%38 applicants
- No signal65%With signal92%40 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 242No signal70%With signal92%23 applicants
- Selectivity 247No signal68%With signal92%54 applicants
- Selectivity 255No signal65%With signal91%85 applicants
- Selectivity 250No signal70%With signal91%81 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 237No signal67%With signal91%11 applicants
- Low NSelectivity 246No signal67%With signal91%25 applicants
- No signal67%With signal91%17 applicants
- Selectivity 245No signal67%With signal91%32 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Gold vs silver: each program’s own gold and silver invite rates are scaled onto your blended estimate, so the button you pick re-prices the row. When a tier has fewer than 10 reports, or gold and silver land within sampling noise, the two share the single blended estimate (the same 10-report floor used for strata).
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Child Neurology limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.