Signal Strategy: Anesthesiology
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What a signal adds at a typical Anesthesiology program
P(interview), no signal to signal, from real applicant data
How this is measured
raw cross-tab, 2024-2026, n=34,655 classifiable Anesthesiology applicants. P(invite) = invited / applied in each cell of signaled × personal tie × away rotation. Cells under 500 reports in the smaller arm carry wider uncertainty than shown; read them as direction, not precision.
Where you’re most likely to land an interview
Showing 50 of 195
Your P(match) with a signal, weighted to your stratum (P(interview) until you add stats).
Each percent is your chance of an interview there, not a ranking of the program. Less competitive programs score higher because they are easier to land.
- Signal requiredSelectivity 253No signal31%With signal88%347 applicants12.2% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 139/133 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 255No signal20%With signal86%293 applicants
- Selectivity 255No signal29%With signal85%85 applicants
- Selectivity 257No signal18%With signal83%191 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 254No signal6%With signal82%244 applicants5.0% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 100/89 · 3 cycles
- Signal requiredSelectivity 250No signal8%With signal79%161 applicants7.0% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 43/90 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- 7.4% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 54/82 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- 8.5% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 47/91 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- 13.0% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 46/124 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Signal requiredSelectivity 256No signal3%With signal77%247 applicants10.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 109/104 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Signal requiredSelectivity 254No signal5%With signal76%210 applicants6.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 99/76 · 3 cycles
- 6.8% matched with a signal0.79% without9x match-rate liftn = 59/126 · 3 cycles
- No signal20%With signal75%24 applicants
- Selectivity 244No signal15%With signal74%91 applicants
- Selectivity 253No signal2%With signal74%192 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 255No signal10%With signal72%197 applicants8.9% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 56/101 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- 9.1% matched with a signal0.00% without∞ match-rate liftn = 121/157 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- 5.4% matched with a signal0.77% without7x match-rate liftn = 37/130 · 3 cyclesHolds for Step 2 250+
- Selectivity 251No signal11%With signal70%184 applicants
- No signal2%With signal70%208 applicants
- Selectivity 249No signal5%With signal70%223 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 256No signal15%With signal70%179 applicants6.0% matched with a signal0.82% without7x match-rate liftn = 50/122 · 3 cycles
- No signal12%With signal69%195 applicants
- Signal requiredSelectivity 255No signal2%With signal69%316 applicants6.1% matched with a signal0.61% without10x match-rate liftn = 98/163 · 3 cycles
- Low NSelectivity 249No signal8%With signal69%19 applicants
- Selectivity 245No signal6%With signal68%117 applicants
Apps transmit to programs on this date.
How these numbers are computed
Lift = P(invite | signaled in your stratum) minus P(invite | unsignaled in your stratum). When the signaled rate comes out lower than the unsignaled one (small-sample noise), lift is floored at 0: signaling cannot credibly hurt your odds.
Stratum = applicant type (US MD / DO / IMG) × Step 2 CK band (<240 / 240-249 / 250-259 / 260-269 / 270+). When your exact stratum has fewer than 10 reports, the program’s overall rollup is used, so you still get a number, just less personalized.
Gold vs silver: each program’s own gold and silver invite rates are scaled onto your blended estimate, so the button you pick re-prices the row. When a tier has fewer than 10 reports, or gold and silver land within sampling noise, the two share the single blended estimate (the same 10-report floor used for strata).
Tier: Reach (invited applicants’ Step 2 midpoint is 8+ above yours, or a signal can’t rescue it), Target (closer fit), Safety (baseline P(invite) over 50%, so you’ll likely interview without a signal). Safety rows and rows a signal can’t rescue get a Skip signal tag; the signal buttons stay, so the call is still yours.
Refine your estimate: each credential you set shifts P(invite) by its modeled effect for this specialty, from a ridge logistic regression on real applicant data. Credentials with no measurable effect leave the number unchanged.
Caveats: lift is observational (signaled applicants may differ in ways we can’t see, like ties, mentorship or prior aways), and programs with fewer than about 30 reports have wide uncertainty.
For the full picture
Match Plan takes your saved programs and computes P(invite), P(match) and tier for each one at your stats, with a backup specialty and your signal budget.
Signal budget
Your Anesthesiology limit this cycle
Division preferences
In MyERAS you can tell programs which parts of the country you prefer: up to 3 census divisions, shared across your whole application. Only programs inside a division you pick see it.
3 picks left. Programs inside your divisions get a marker in the list. This is separate from the list’s state filter and from personal ties.