Match probability calculator
Your profile
−6 pts vs the NRMP US MD average (70.5%)
Realistic but uncertain.
From 440 US MD applicants: 314 matched, 126 unmatched
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Factor breakdown
How each part of your profile moves your odds
What if?
How changes to your profile would affect your probability
How competitive are you?
Dermatology programs whose invited Step 2 range holds your 250
| Program | Invited Step 2 | Fit |
|---|---|---|
246–268 · In range · 250 | ||
245–268 · In range · 250 | ||
University of Missouri-Columbia Program Columbia, MO | 250–273 · In range · 250 | |
Baylor College of Medicine Program Houston, TX | 246–270 · In range · 250 | |
Boston University Medical Center Program Boston, MA | 245–270 · In range · 250 | |
Cleveland Clinic Foundation Program Cleveland, OH | 249–275 · In range · 250 | |
NYU Grossman School of Medicine Program New York, NY | 245–271 · In range · 250 | |
University of California Davis Health Program Sacramento, CA | 241–267 · In range · 250 | |
University of Kansas School of Medicine Program Kansas City, KS | 246–272 · In range · 250 | |
University of North Carolina Hospitals Program Chapel Hill, NC | 247–273 · In range · 250 |
- Invited Step 2
- 246–268 · In range · 250
- Fit
- Invited Step 2
- 245–268 · In range · 250
- Fit
- University of Missouri-Columbia ProgramColumbia, MO
- Invited Step 2
- 250–273 · In range · 250
- Fit
- Baylor College of Medicine ProgramHouston, TX
- Invited Step 2
- 246–270 · In range · 250
- Fit
- Boston University Medical Center ProgramBoston, MA
- Invited Step 2
- 245–270 · In range · 250
- Fit
- Cleveland Clinic Foundation ProgramCleveland, OH
- Invited Step 2
- 249–275 · In range · 250
- Fit
- NYU Grossman School of Medicine ProgramNew York, NY
- Invited Step 2
- 245–271 · In range · 250
- Fit
- University of California Davis Health ProgramSacramento, CA
- Invited Step 2
- 241–267 · In range · 250
- Fit
- University of Kansas School of Medicine ProgramKansas City, KS
- Invited Step 2
- 246–272 · In range · 250
- Fit
- University of North Carolina Hospitals ProgramChapel Hill, NC
- Invited Step 2
- 247–273 · In range · 250
- Fit
Programs that train your school's grads
Dermatology
Programs fill a lot of spots from the same few schools. This shows where yours lands, by share of each program's residents. It doesn't change your odds above.
Same profile, other specialties
Your stats in all 22 NRMP specialties. Tap one to switch.
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Important disclaimer: how these numbers are made
This calculator uses aggregate data from the NRMP's Charting Outcomes reports for U.S. MD seniors: Step 2 CK score outcomes from the 2026 edition, with rank-list and credential structure from the pooled 2020-2024 reports. It employs a weighted logistic model based on the 12 measures reported by NRMP. It does NOT account for: letters of recommendation, personal statements, interview performance, away rotations, clinical grades/evaluations (MSPE), geographic ties, program-specific preferences, Step 1 pass/fail status, or other qualitative factors.
The actual NRMP probability curves use simple logistic regression on individual factors; this tool combines multiple factors into one estimate. Use as a rough guide only, not as a definitive predictor. With Step 1 now pass/fail, Step 2 CK has become the primary score differentiator for most specialties.
Specialty groups reflect overall NRMP competitiveness (approximate match-rate band). Applicant counts are NRMP applicants last cycle; ophthalmology counts are SF Match applicants.